CHAPTER XXV.

WHAT FORTUNE CAN EFFECT IN HUMAN AFFAIRS AND HOW TO WITHSTAND HER

It is not unknown to me how many men have had, and still have, the

opinion that the affairs of the world are in such wise governed by

fortune and by God that men with their wisdom cannot direct them and

that no one can even help them; and because of this they would have us

believe that it is not necessary to labour much in affairs, but to let

chance govern them. This opinion has been more credited in our times

because of the great changes in affairs which have been seen, and may

still be seen, every day, beyond all human conjecture. Sometimes

pondering over this, I am in some degree inclined to their opinion.

Nevertheless, not to extinguish our free will, I hold it to be true

that Fortune is the arbiter of one-half of our actions,[1] but that she

still leaves us to direct the other half, or perhaps a little less.

[1] Frederick the Great was accustomed to say: “The older one gets the

more convinced one becomes that his Majesty King Chance does

three-quarters of the business of this miserable universe.” Sorel’s

“Eastern Question.”

I compare her to one of those raging rivers, which when in flood

overflows the plains, sweeping away trees and buildings, bearing away

the soil from place to place; everything flies before it, all yield to

its violence, without being able in any way to withstand it; and yet,

though its nature be such, it does not follow therefore that men, when

the weather becomes fair, shall not make provision, both with defences

and barriers, in such a manner that, rising again, the waters may pass

away by canal, and their force be neither so unrestrained nor so

dangerous. So it happens with fortune, who shows her power where valour

has not prepared to resist her, and thither she turns her forces where

she knows that barriers and defences have not been raised to constrain

her.

And if you will consider Italy, which is the seat of these changes, and

which has given to them their impulse, you will see it to be an open

country without barriers and without any defence. For if it had been

defended by proper valour, as are Germany, Spain, and France, either

this invasion would not have made the great changes it has made or it

would not have come at all. And this I consider enough to say

concerning resistance to fortune in general.

But confining myself more to the particular, I say that a prince may be

seen happy to-day and ruined to-morrow without having shown any change

of disposition or character. This, I believe, arises firstly from

causes that have already been discussed at length, namely, that the

prince who relies entirely on fortune is lost when it changes. I

believe also that he will be successful who directs his actions

according to the spirit of the times, and that he whose actions do not

accord with the times will not be successful. Because men are seen, in

affairs that lead to the end which every man has before him, namely,

glory and riches, to get there by various methods; one with caution,

another with haste; one by force, another by skill; one by patience,

another by its opposite; and each one succeeds in reaching the goal by

a different method. One can also see of two cautious men the one attain

his end, the other fail; and similarly, two men by different

observances are equally successful, the one being cautious, the other

impetuous; all this arises from nothing else than whether or not they

conform in their methods to the spirit of the times. This follows from

what I have said, that two men working differently bring about the same

effect, and of two working similarly, one attains his object and the

other does not.

Changes in estate also issue from this, for if, to one who governs

himself with caution and patience, times and affairs converge in such a

way that his administration is successful, his fortune is made; but if

times and affairs change, he is ruined if he does not change his course

of action. But a man is not often found sufficiently circumspect to

know how to accommodate himself to the change, both because he cannot

deviate from what nature inclines him to do, and also because, having

always prospered by acting in one way, he cannot be persuaded that it

is well to leave it; and, therefore, the cautious man, when it is time

to turn adventurous, does not know how to do it, hence he is ruined;

but had he changed his conduct with the times fortune would not have

changed.

Pope Julius the Second went to work impetuously in all his affairs, and

found the times and circumstances conform so well to that line of

action that he always met with success. Consider his first enterprise

against Bologna, Messer Giovanni Bentivogli being still alive. The

Venetians were not agreeable to it, nor was the King of Spain, and he

had the enterprise still under discussion with the King of France;

nevertheless he personally entered upon the expedition with his

accustomed boldness and energy, a move which made Spain and the

Venetians stand irresolute and passive, the latter from fear, the

former from desire to recover the kingdom of Naples; on the other hand,

he drew after him the King of France, because that king, having

observed the movement, and desiring to make the Pope his friend so as

to humble the Venetians, found it impossible to refuse him. Therefore

Julius with his impetuous action accomplished what no other pontiff

with simple human wisdom could have done; for if he had waited in Rome

until he could get away, with his plans arranged and everything fixed,

as any other pontiff would have done, he would never have succeeded.

Because the King of France would have made a thousand excuses, and the

others would have raised a thousand fears.

I will leave his other actions alone, as they were all alike, and they

all succeeded, for the shortness of his life did not let him experience

the contrary; but if circumstances had arisen which required him to go

cautiously, his ruin would have followed, because he would never have

deviated from those ways to which nature inclined him.

I conclude, therefore that, fortune being changeful and mankind

steadfast in their ways, so long as the two are in agreement men are

successful, but unsuccessful when they fall out. For my part I consider

that it is better to be adventurous than cautious, because fortune is a

woman, and if you wish to keep her under it is necessary to beat and

ill-use her; and it is seen that she allows herself to be mastered by

the adventurous rather than by those who go to work more coldly. She

is, therefore, always, woman-like, a lover of young men, because they

are less cautious, more violent, and with more audacity command her.