CHAPTER LXIII.
A GLIMPSE INTO THE FUTURE.
I believe that it would be difficult to set bounds to the possibilities
of American development. The inventive genius of the people, their
adaptability to all circumstances, their tenacity of purpose, their
wonderful energy, and the fabulous resources of the country all make it
certain that the United States will reach a degree of power and
prosperity hitherto unexampled in human history. Carlyle’s “French
Revolution,” has been strikingly described as “history read by flashes
of lightning,” and I am tempted to use the same language in describing
the commercial revolution which has taken place in this country during
the last few years. Great as it is, however, I think it merely a prelude
to what is to come. We are destined for one thing to have a great
Pacific trade. Fifty years ago, Humboldt said that the day would come
when the trade of the Pacific Ocean would be as great as that of the
Atlantic. And the increase within a year or two in this commerce augurs
well for the ultimate fulfillment of the great scientist’s prophecy. We
readily adapt ourselves to the requirements of foreign markets and that
is a very important point. Lord Charles Beresford bears testimony to
this fact. He says with truth that Americans find out what the foreign
markets want, then they supply it. The English say in effect, “We know
what you want better than you know yourselves.” The American sends the
Chinese thirty-inch-wide calico, which is what they want; the Englishman
sticks to twenty-seven inches, with the remark expressed or implied,
“Take it or leave it.” And the Chinese will leave it rather than take it
and the American manufacturer will be the gainer thereby. Minister Wu’s
recent remarks on the necessity of finding out just what the Chinese
want and then conforming to their wants, cannot be too carefully borne
in mind. Furthermore, we are ready to adopt the newest and most highly
perfected machinery regardless of cost. Mr. Carnegie, for instance, on a
single occasion discarded machinery which had cost him $2,000,000, and
replaced it with the latest which inventive genius could supply. The
London engineering journals, on the other hand, admit that the British
manufacturers will not change their machinery no matter how apparent it
may be that they are being distanced by their more progressive rivals in
this country. They reason that they have put just so much money into the
“plant” and must get just so much out of it before they will replace it.
This seems a good deal like the ostrich which thrusts its head into the
sand and refuses to look danger in the face. In the meantime the British
are left behind in the race and Glasgow merchants have to try the
puerile and utterly futile device of getting up a boycott against
American steel and iron products. Such a device, under the
circumstances, seems a good deal like the attempt of the celebrated Dame
Partington, as the famous English wit Sidney Smith describes it, to
sweep back the Atlantic Ocean. She trundled her mop vigorously and made
a gallant onslaught, but the Atlantic was aroused and it is needless to
say who was the victor. And the American iron trade’s invasion of
English markets must result in a victory, unless there is a radical
change in conditions, which no one can now foresee. We study the
markets; we take pains to ascertain their wants, and it is an axiom of
trade that a man or nation that supplies the demand, whatever it may
happen to be, gets the trade. This is a law as inexorable, as
unchangeable as the laws of the Medes and Persians.
We are now one of the five great world powers, financial and political,
with a population second to none except Russia. That is to say, we have
a population of 76,300,000, Germany has 55,000,000, Austro-Hungary
45,000,000, the United Kingdom 41,000,000, France 39,000,000, Italy
32,000,000, Spain 20,000,000, Russia 136,000,000, Japan, 45,000,000,
India 340,000,000, China 400,000,000. The Mongolian race is numerically
powerful, but in the long run can the yellow race stand up against the
white? I doubt it. Meantime the population in this western home of the
Caucasian race is steadily increasing. In 1800 the United States had a
population of only 5,308,483. It is now 76,304,799. Then we had sixteen
states. Now we have forty-five. Then our territory consisted of 909,050
square miles. It is now 3,846,595 square miles. We have practically a
new race made up of an amalgamation of all branches of the Caucasian
race, speaking the English tongue, which in my judgment is destined to
be the one tongue spoken in the world. It is a people determined to
uphold just and equitable principles of trade and to have sound money.
The amount now in circulation is $2,074,687,871, or an increase within
three years of $400,000,000. Russia has only 26,000 miles of railroad;
we have 190,000. In the last fifteen years we have made more progress in
the things which tend to increase practically the term of human life by
annihilating time and space and supplying necessities and comforts of
one kind or another than ever before in our history. We are told that
what does not happen in a year may happen in a minute. Similarly what
might not have happened in a thousand years under adverse conditions,
has happened in fifteen.
What of the future? In the language of Daniel Webster, “the past at
least is secure.” We see that the bank exchanges which in 1888 were
$48,750,886,813, have risen in 1900 to approximately $92,000,000,000.
During four years of a sound money Republican Administration, exchanges
in our clearing houses steadily increased from $48,750,886,813 in 1888,
to the magnificent total of $60,883,572,438 in 1892. But from 1892,
during four years of Democratic rule, our clearings fell from
$60,883,572,438 to $51,935,651,733 in 1896, running as low as
$45,000,000,000 in 1894. From 1896, during Mr. McKinley’s
Administration, we gained on an average more than ten billions each
year, the exchanges having gone up from $51,935,651,733 in 1896, to the
surprising sum of $92,037,588,818 in 1900. From 1888 to 1892 during a
Republican Administration, we increased our exports $317,787,505,
reaching the then gratifying figure of $1,015,732,011. From 1892 to
1896, during a Democratic Administration, our exports decreased by
$152,531,524, falling from $1,015,732,011 to $863,200,487. From 1896
down to June 30, 1900, with two months estimated, during McKinley’s
Administration, our exports have gone up from $863,200,487 in 1896, to
$1,400,000,000, gaining $537,000,000, or nearly doubling; and of this
vast export of $1,400,000,000 more than $400,000,000 are manufactured
goods, and would require in their production more than a million of
American mechanics.
From the fall of 1888 to the fall of 1892, during a Republican
Administration, national banks gained in resources $694,400,000, going
from $2,815,700,000 to $3,510,100,000. From the fall of 1892 to the fall
of 1896, during a Democratic Administration, the national banks lost in
resources $346,500,000, going down from $3,510,100,000 to
$3,263,600,000. From the fall of 1896 to April 26, 1900, during
McKinley’s Administration, the national banks have gained in resources
$1,548,356,000, going up from $3,263,600,000 to $4,811,956,000. The
increase in both Republican periods was constant and gradual throughout,
demonstrating, as has been well said, the influence and power of
far-reaching politics which alone can bring about uniform and universal
prosperity worthy the genius of the American people. The Republican
party turned over the Government to the Democrats in March, 1893, with a
bonded debt of only $585,029,330, and this was increased to
$847,365,130, in times of peace. For the purpose of prosecuting the war
the debt was increased in 1898 by $200,000,000, and now stands at
$1,046,048,750, less such an amount of the twenty-five millions of 2 per
cent. bonds as the Secretary of the Treasury may have already redeemed.
During the last four years of Democratic administration, $201,003,808 of
gold was exported; while during the first three years of the recent
Administration, or down to June 30, 1899, we imported $201,071,000,
making a difference in favor of Republican politics of $402,074,808.
Look, too, at the per capita circulation in the United States. In 1802,
it was $5.00; in 1845, $9.00; in 1873, $15.85; in 1892, $24.40; in 1900,
$26.77.
As President McKinley pointed out in his message, our foreign trade for
the fiscal year of 1900 showed a remarkable record. The total of imports
and exports for the first time in the history of the country exceeded
two billions of dollars. The exports are greater than they have ever
been before, the total for the fiscal year 1900 being $1,394,483,082, an
increase over 1899 of $167,459,780, an increase over 1898 of
$163,000,752, over 1897 of $343,489,526, and greater than 1896 by
$511,876,144. The growth of manufactures in the United States is
evidenced by the fact that exports of manufactured products largely
exceed those of any previous year, their value for 1900 being
$433,851,756, against $339,592,146 in 1899, an increase of 28%.
Agricultural products were also exported during 1900 in greater volume
than in 1899, the total for the year being $835,858,123, against
$784,776,142 in 1899.
The imports for the year amounted to $849,941,184, an increase over 1899
of $152,792,695. The increase is largely in materials for manufacture,
and is in response to the rapid development of manufacturing in the
United States. While there was imported for use in manufactures in 1900
material to the value of $79,768,972 in excess of 1899, it is reassuring
to observe that there is a tendency toward decrease in the importation
of articles manufactured ready for consumption, which in 1900 formed
15.17 per cent. of the total imports against 15.54 per cent. in 1899 and
21.09 per cent. in 1896.
The election of November, 1900, stamped out of the minds of the people
all fear that any sort of governmental policy in any way inimical to the
finances or business or prosperity of the country may be adopted. A very
great factor in our future development, which our people are soon to
discover, will appear in the building up of the ports of trade on the
Pacific Coast, which will be so extensive and rapid in progress that the
Atlantic ports will before long begin to feel the competition of the
Western coast of our country. Our grasp of the Philippine Islands, and
the foothold in trade and greater share of confidence in our
disinterestedness as regards territorial encroachment which is fast
gaining in the Chinese Empire, will finally consummate the preparations
for as great business and prosperity for the Pacific coast States as
have heretofore been enjoyed by those of the Atlantic coast. Soon a part
of the trade and commerce of the Eastern States will be brought into
competition with that of the great Pacific coast, insomuch that it will
appear that indeed “Westward the star of empire takes its way.” It is
the foresight of such change in the Pacific States that has helped
produce such a pronounced electoral result.
Our country is now passing through a rapid growth of progress and power
and prestige which will soon place her in the leadership of the nations,
with every means necessary for extending civilization, enlightenment,
commerce and better government over the world. We have come to the time
when we must take up the mighty work of further cultivating and
improving the condition of mankind, and we will continue this great work
until our labors shall have brought to pass better conditions of
government, co-ordination of interests, education, and peace and good
will among the nations of the earth. In the progress of civilization
since the dawn of the Christian era, the momentous task of leadership
has devolved first upon Rome, then upon Spain, then upon England. It
seems to have been reserved for the “Young Giant of the West” to
complete the tasks undertaken, and assemble into one great community of
interest vast national forces which have been the growth of centuries.
In due time we shall no doubt finish the work and bring peace and good
will to men in every part of the world and prepare men everywhere to
turn the spear into a pruning hook, the sword into a ploughshare and to
give freedom and protection and prosperity to all sorts and conditions
of men, and put an end to strife between the nations. We believe that
such is the great office to which we have been called, and that our
functions as the leading nation of the world have already begun.
[Illustration]
ALL THE PRECEDING PAGES WERE
WRITTEN YEARS AGO, AND WHAT FOLLOWS
BRINGS THE WORK UP TO THE
DATE OF THIS ISSUE, MARCH 31ST, 1908.
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